The results of the Cocagne Watershed climate analysis show that floods and droughts, while difficult to predict, are more and more common and increasing in intensity. The number of extreme weather events has climbed in recent years: for example, the 2010 winter storms, the 2017 ice storm, and more recently Hurrican Dorian in the fall of 2019.
Increased precipitation and temperatures result in significant property damage and financial costs for watershed residents. Consequences are felt on tourism, outdoor leisure activities, agriculture, construction and maintenance of buildings, and infrastructure.
Rising sea level
In New Brunswick, studies show that the coastal zone along the Acadian shoreline has experienced an increased and accelerated rising sea level in recent years and this phenomenon will continue to occur over the coming decades (Daigle, 2012, 2017 Réf.). This is due to melting sea ice and glaciers, as well as the thermal expansion of oceans.
REF: Réal Daigle (2012) Sea-Level Rise and Flooding Estimates for New Brunswick Coastal Sections
The most recent report by Réal Daigle (2017) presents scenarios of the rising sea level and floods based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections. The Northumberland Strait coastline, especially the coastal communities of Kent County, will be particularly affected.
REF: Daigle, R. (2017). Updated sea-level rise and flooding estimates for New Brunswick coastal sections 2017: Based on IPCC 5th Assessment Report.
Storm surges
During the past years, major storm surges have hit many coastal communities in South-East New Brunswick. Storm surges are likely to worsen as sea level continues to rise.
Damage to the built environment and infrastructure
Buildings located in flood-prone areas along the coast and near rivers, streams, and wetlands are vulnerable to the rising sea level and heavy precipitation.
Substantial costs of cleaning, repairing, or relocating buildings because of flooding could prove difficult to manage for both the population and public infrastructure.
Public infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and culverts are likely to be damaged or carried away by the water during storms. Damage to roads could result in slower emergency response and isolation of part of the population.
The infrastructure that manages the treatment and supply of drinking water is also vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Wells are at increased risk of contamination, particularly through the intrusion of salt water or other substances. Septic tanks and septic fields may not function properly in the event of flooding due to heavy precipitation or storm surges.
Impact on ecosystems, biodiversity, and natural areas
Many natural areas are also at risk from rising sea levels, especially coastal areas, such as salt marshes, beaches, and dunes, etc. Salt marshes are vulnerable to coastal squeeze, which causes marshes to retreat landward.
Ref: Lemmen, D.S., Warren, F.J., James, T.S. and Mercer Clarke, C.S.L. editors (2016): Canada’s Marine Coasts in a Changing Climate; Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 274p.
Changes in the composition of the territory’s forests and woodlots are also to be expected. Pests, insects, and disease outbreaks, as well as the increased frequency of forest fires could multiply the loss of jobs in the forest industry
(Natural Resources, 2019)
Services to the population
It is important to pay attention to essential services in order to enhance community resilience. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly, people with reduced mobility or people living alone or who are isolated, are particularly at risk during storms, long periods of heat or power outages.
We must provide newcomers with a network of contacts so that they are not isolated. Seasonal residents that are located on private roads, especially those likely to be or who have already been affected by flooding, may not be able to evacuate in an emergency.
Small businesses providing essential services to the community, such as gas stations and grocery stores, are vulnerable to flooding because of their proximity to flood-prone areas. In the event of an emergency, the population becomes vulnerable regarding fuel for cars or generators, as well as access to water and food.
Socio-economic impact
Climatic events will impact the fishing and aquaculture industry, as well as agriculture and forestry (Chouinard & Fauré, 2018). For example, the aquaculture industry is at risk through contamination from inadequate septic systems, while the lobster fishery depends on wharf maintenance.
For local agriculture, erosion from increased precipitation and flooding affects the soil in plowed fields near waterways and wetlands. Heavy amounts of rainfall can cause crop damage. In addition, the increased frequency of freezing and thawing in winter can also affect fruit trees by ending dormancy early and increasing damage from subsequent cold snaps (Falzoi & Fortin, 2019).
